Assessing the future heating and cooling needs of the UK housing stock (dataset)

This dataset provides modelled estimates of indoor overheating, heating and cooling needs across the UK housing stock, aggregated by dwelling archetype and 2021 Lower-layer Super Output Areas (LSOA). Eight dwelling archetypes broadly representative of the UK housing stock were assessed: Detached; semi-detached; bungalow; end-terrace; mid-terrace; highrise, lowrise and converted flats. Future weather files using 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) were used to model the projected outdoor conditions in the years 2030, 2050 and 2085 under Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6. Additionally, outdoor conditions in England in 2085 were modelled using a RCP 8.5 weather file to assess a scenario in which global emissions continue to rise with little abatement. The results show the median percent of hours the bedroom temperature exceeded 26oC during annual nighttime hours (defined as 10pm - 7am); median cooling and heating demand (expressed as a Cooling Energy Use Intensity and a Heating Energy Use Intensity, in kWh/yr/m2), with different levels of building-level adaptation at three time intervals: 2030, 2050 and 2085. The five adaptation scenarios modelled and the assumptions they include are detailed on the 'Metadata' worksheet.