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Surface concentrations of PM2.5 in Africa in 2012 and 2030

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posted on 14.05.2021, 14:31 by Eloise Marais, Rachel F. Silvern, Alina Vodonos, Eleonore Dupin, Alfred S. Bockarie, Loretta J. Mickley, Joel Schwartz
Gridded surface concentrations of fine particles or PM2.5 in Africa in 2012 and 2030 to determine the impact of increased adoption of fossil fuels on health. Surface concentrations were obtained with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model simulated regionally over Africa at 0.5 degrees latitude by 0.667 degrees longitude.

The 2012 simulation uses updated estimates of emissions from fossil fuels used for vehicles and electricity generation. The 2030 simulation uses the same 2012 meteorology, but with updated PM2.5 precursor emissions that account for growth in vehicle ownership from 2012 to 2030 and increased electricity generating capacity from fossil fuelled power plants that are under consideration, planned, being constructed, or being commissioned.

The difference between the 2030 and 2012 PM2.5 values provides an estimate of the PM2.5 from growth in fossil fuel use in Africa over this time period and was used in the publication cited below to estimate the number of premature deaths that could be avoided by not adopting fossil fuels.


Wallace Global Fund